Wed, Nov 13, 2013·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Dallas Stars 3, Edmonton Oilers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 011 | 17 | 28 | 326 |
| EDM | 09 | 06 | 07 | 022 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:35DALRich PeverleyGWGAssists: Jordie Benn, Antoine Roussel · Snap, 0.25 xG1–0
- P3 19:08DALTyler SeguinENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.48 xG2–0
- P3 19:46DALAntoine RousselENAssists: Trevor Daley, Kari Lehtonen · Wrist, 0.62 xG3–0
Penalties (12)
- P1 12:38DALTrevor Daley: Holding2 min
- P1 16:42DALCody Eakin: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:51EDMRyan Smyth: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:40DALStephane Robidas: Holding2 min
- P2 3:09DALRyan Garbutt: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
- P2 8:11DALJamie Benn: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:19EDMAndrew Ference: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:04EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Holding2 min
- P3 0:48EDMJeff Petry: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:17EDMBoyd Gordon: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 7:05EDMCorey Potter: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:56EDMAnton Belov: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Seguin – Nichushkin10:23
xG 0.45–0.15 (75%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Cole – Chiasson – Eakin7:08
xG 0.13–0.03 (81%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Morin – Roussel – Garbutt4:47
xG 0.18–0.10 (63%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Roussel – Garbutt2:39
xG 0.03–0.03 (54%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Benn9:27
xG 0.58–0.25 (70%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Daley – Goligoski11:56
xG 0.21–0.07 (76%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Robidas – Dillon14:46
xG 0.50–0.36 (58%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins8:01
xG 0.21–0.06 (78%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Smyth – Arcobello – Yakupov3:41
xG 0.13–0.05 (72%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins – Yakupov2:06
xG 0.07–0.12 (37%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Gagner – Perron8:33
xG 0.11–0.19 (36%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Potter7:11
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Larsen – Belov13:39
xG 0.22–0.39 (36%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Petry – Belov2:47
xG 0.05–0.35 (13%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).