Thu, Nov 14, 2013·TD Garden, Boston
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Boston Bruins 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 18 | 112 | 012 | 02 | 234 |
| BOS | 111 | 112 | 07 | 11 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:48CBJBlake ComeauAssists: Mark Letestu, Derek MacKenzie · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 18:10BOSLoui ErikssonAssists: Zdeno Chara, Patrice Bergeron · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 10:09BOSShawn ThorntonAssists: Gregory Campbell, Torey Krug · Slap, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 16:34CBJNick FolignoAssists: Nikita Nikitin · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–2
- OT 4:11BOSMilan LucicGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:59CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Slashing2 min
- P1 5:15BOSMatt Bartkowski: Interference2 min
- P1 10:35BOSMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:40BOSChris Kelly: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:36BOSBrad Marchand: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Krejci
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Atkinson – Johansen11:14
xG 0.84–0.26 (76%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Comeau – Letestu9:37
xG 0.40–0.18 (69%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Gaborik – Foligno – Chaput4:35
xG 0.22–0.06 (80%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Umberger – Boll – Anisimov2:38
xG 0.20–0.04 (82%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNikitin – Savard15:00
xG 0.72–0.30 (70%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Tyutin – Johnson15:26
xG 0.84–0.58 (59%)attempts 13–18goals 1–2
- Wisniewski – Murray14:37
xG 0.36–0.48 (43%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Bergeron – Marchand12:34
xG 0.55–0.31 (64%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Kelly – Soderberg – Smith9:29
xG 0.36–0.21 (64%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Iginla – Krejci – Lucic11:16
xG 0.24–0.35 (41%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille6:36
xG 0.07–0.69 (9%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Hamilton13:52
xG 0.66–0.51 (56%)attempts 17–8goals 1–1
- Boychuk – Bartkowski14:08
xG 0.23–0.14 (62%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Krug16:36
xG 0.52–0.88 (37%)attempts 24–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).