Thu, Nov 14, 2013·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Los Angeles Kings 3, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 010 | 05 | 39 | 324 |
| NYI | 07 | 215 | 03 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:44NYICasey CizikasAssists: Matt Martin, Cal Clutterbuck · Backhand, 0.27 xG0–1
- P2 4:58NYIAaron NessAssists: John Tavares · Snap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P3 5:34LAKSlava VoynovAssists: Anze Kopitar, Justin Williams · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 12:15LAKTanner PearsonPPAssists: Slava Voynov, Linden Vey · Snap, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 18:33LAKTyler ToffoliGWGAssists: Jake Muzzin, Linden Vey · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:47NYIMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:47LAKJordan Nolan: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:05NYICasey Cizikas: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:33LAKDustin Brown: Interference2 min
- P1 19:05LAKWillie Mitchell: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 12:33LAKDwight King: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 14:53NYICal Clutterbuck: Charging2 min
- P2 18:49LAKAnze Kopitar: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 10:50NYIColin McDonald: Illegal check to head2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Brown – Kopitar12:29
xG 0.42–0.22 (65%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Fraser – Lewis – Nolan3:16
xG 0.20–0.13 (61%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Richards – King – Toffoli6:10
xG 0.15–0.11 (58%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Vey – Toffoli – Pearson3:18
xG 0.03–0.02 (61%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Martinez11:09
xG 0.28–0.15 (66%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Doughty16:38
xG 0.41–0.38 (52%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Regehr – Voynov12:38
xG 0.16–0.35 (31%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Bouchard – Bailey9:04
xG 0.17–0.05 (79%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- McDonald – Regin – Grabner5:17
xG 0.15–0.07 (68%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Okposo – Tavares – Nelson12:13
xG 0.25–0.30 (45%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas9:32
xG 0.23–0.34 (41%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – Donovan9:15
xG 0.54–0.16 (77%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
- Carkner – Ness9:34
xG 0.19–0.19 (51%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic16:41
xG 0.52–0.57 (48%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).