Thu, Nov 14, 2013·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
San Jose Sharks 2, Vancouver Canucks 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 08 | 09 | 110 | 13 | 230 |
| VAN | 08 | 120 | 07 | 00 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:40VANKevin BieksaPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Alexandre Burrows · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P3 18:55SJSTomas HertlAssists: Dan Boyle, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- OT 2:38SJSDan BoylePPGWGAssists: Joe Pavelski, Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 12:03VANAlexander Edler: Interference2 min
- P2 5:14VANDavid Booth: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:29SJSScott Hannan: Interference2 min
- P2 11:10VANAlexandre Burrows: Interference2 min
- P2 11:50SJSJoe Pavelski: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 9:35SJSJoe Pavelski: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:35VANBrad Richardson: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:54SJSAndrew Desjardins: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:54VANKevin Bieksa: Fighting5 min
- OT 2:07VANHenrik Sedin: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Pavelski – Couture5:21
xG 0.65–0.24 (73%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Kennedy – Sheppard – McCarthy3:17
xG 0.19–0.02 (91%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Desjardins – Sheppard – McCarthy2:02
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Havlat – Desjardins – Nieto3:44
xG 0.04–0.03 (58%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Braun14:40
xG 0.69–0.48 (59%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
- Boyle – Vlasic16:10
xG 0.66–0.47 (58%)attempts 24–11goals 0–0
- Hannan – Demers12:44
xG 0.04–0.83 (5%)attempts 6–18goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Kesler14:26
xG 0.54–0.15 (78%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Richardson – Booth – Kassian9:51
xG 0.50–0.19 (73%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Higgins – Burrows – Santorelli13:21
xG 0.91–0.75 (55%)attempts 24–15goals 0–0
- Sestito – Dalpe – Welsh3:33
xG 0.03–0.03 (51%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Stanton11:33
xG 0.41–0.06 (88%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Edler – Garrison15:28
xG 0.49–0.25 (66%)attempts 19–17goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Edler2:09
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).