Fri, Nov 15, 2013·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Anaheim Ducks 2, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 08 | 18 | 113 | 01 | 1 | 230 |
| CAR | 04 | 18 | 17 | 04 | 2 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 18:00ANACorey PerryAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 19:43CAREric StaalPPAssists: Alexander Semin, Ryan Murphy · Deflected, 0.18 xG1–1
- P3 3:01CARDrayson BowmanAssists: Andrej Sekera · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P3 7:18ANADustin PennerPPAssists: Corey Perry, Cam Fowler · Slap, 0.08 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. ANA Teemu Selanne stopped
- 2. CAR Riley Nash scored
- 3. ANA Corey Perry scored
- 4. CAR Alexander Semin stopped
- 5. ANA Ryan Getzlaf stopped
- 6. CAR Chris Terry scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:59ANAPatrick Maroon: Holding2 min
- P1 9:36CARTuomo Ruutu: Interference2 min
- P2 12:12CAREric Staal: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:59ANACam Fowler: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 6:09CARJustin Faulk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 8:32ANAKyle Palmieri: Closing hand on puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nash won the faceoff against Winnik
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestWinnik – Cogliano – Smith-Pelly8:30
xG 0.39–0.14 (74%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Maroon – Palmieri – Rakell4:54
xG 0.26–0.04 (88%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Smith-Pelly – Rakell4:21
xG 0.55–0.33 (62%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Penner12:22
xG 0.45–0.33 (57%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Fistric10:30
xG 0.53–0.14 (79%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Fowler17:23
xG 0.72–0.43 (63%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Allen – Lindholm13:00
xG 0.55–0.55 (50%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSemin – Staal – Bowman4:35
xG 0.51–0.29 (64%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Ruutu – Terry – Nash8:27
xG 0.12–0.12 (51%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Gerbe – Staal13:16
xG 0.37–0.49 (43%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Semin – Staal – Tlusty9:49
xG 0.18–0.50 (27%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Bellemore11:55
xG 0.52–0.31 (62%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Sekera – Faulk15:30
xG 0.46–0.42 (52%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Harrison – Murphy14:36
xG 0.29–0.68 (30%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).