Fri, Nov 15, 2013·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Boston Bruins 2, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 213 | 09 | 010 | 232 |
| OTT | 16 | 07 | 318 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:03BOSLoui ErikssonAssists: Matt Bartkowski, Patrice Bergeron · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 9:50BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Matt Bartkowski, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P1 19:10OTTChris NeilUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 1:32OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Erik Karlsson, Milan Michalek · Snap, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 5:42OTTJared CowenGWGAssists: Cory Conacher, Jason Spezza · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 10:11OTTBobby RyanUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG2–4
Penalties (3)
- P2 3:05BOSCarl Soderberg: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:42OTTZack Smith: Kneeing2 min
- P3 16:52BOSJarome Iginla: Charging2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Bergeron – Marchand12:58
xG 0.59–0.12 (83%)attempts 17–8goals 2–0
- Kelly – Soderberg – Smith9:48
xG 0.40–0.14 (74%)attempts 15–7goals 0–2
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille7:39
xG 0.05–0.15 (23%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Iginla – Krejci – Lucic14:42
xG 0.24–0.91 (21%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Hamilton15:22
xG 0.64–0.07 (91%)attempts 21–9goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Bartkowski14:37
xG 0.46–0.15 (76%)attempts 13–9goals 2–2
- Seidenberg – Krug14:30
xG 0.24–0.79 (23%)attempts 10–16goals 0–2
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Greening – Smith9:59
xG 0.45–0.22 (67%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Kassian – Grant – Zibanejad2:05
xG 0.02–0.01 (57%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Conacher10:43
xG 0.16–0.19 (46%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- Spezza – Grant – Zibanejad2:06
xG 0.01–0.12 (9%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGryba – Cowen14:21
xG 0.60–0.24 (72%)attempts 14–12goals 2–1
- Phillips – Karlsson2:24
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Cowen2:06
xG 0.03–0.05 (42%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).