Fri, Nov 15, 2013·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Washington Capitals 4, Detroit Red Wings 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 111 | 08 | 211 | 03 | 1 | 433 |
| DET | 212 | 113 | 08 | 04 | 0 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:50WSHBrooks LaichAssists: Steve Oleksy · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 15:52DETJohan FranzenPPAssists: Jakub Kindl, Danny DeKeyser · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 18:10DETJohan FranzenAssists: Tomas Tatar, Darren Helm · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 19:42DETDanny DeKeyserPPAssists: Johan Franzen, Jakub Kindl · Snap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 3:19WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Marcus Johansson, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 11:54WSHMichael LattaAssists: John Carlson, Karl Alzner · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. DET Pavel Datsyuk stopped
- 2. WSH Mikhail Grabovski stopped
- 3. DET Johan Franzen stopped
- 4. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
- 5. DET Todd Bertuzzi stopped
- 6. WSH Nicklas Backstrom scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:13DETBrian Lashoff: Holding2 min
- P1 14:09WSHTom Wilson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:59DETNiklas Kronwall: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:04WSHAlexander Urbom: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:54WSHTom Wilson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00DETNiklas Kronwall: Holding2 min
- P3 7:38WSHTroy Brouwer: Interference2 min
- OT 1:11DETDanny DeKeyser: Hooking2 min
- OT 2:25WSHNicklas Backstrom: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansson won the faceoff against Helm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestLaich – Brouwer – Johansson7:27
xG 0.24–0.06 (81%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Chimera – Ward – Grabovski9:31
xG 0.33–0.16 (67%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Erat – Laich – Brouwer3:52
xG 0.16–0.00 (99%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Latta – Volpatti – Wilson4:08
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStrachan – Schmidt15:33
xG 0.32–0.06 (84%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson16:10
xG 0.63–0.43 (60%)attempts 16–15goals 2–0
- Urbom – Oleksy9:03
xG 0.39–0.21 (65%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCleary – Miller – Abdelkader2:46
xG 0.07–0.01 (83%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Franzen – Helm – Tatar7:26
xG 0.16–0.12 (56%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Cleary – Samuelsson – Andersson3:06
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Cleary – Samuelsson – Abdelkader2:25
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – DeKeyser11:53
xG 0.46–0.32 (59%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Kindl – DeKeyser3:07
xG 0.07–0.06 (54%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson13:28
xG 0.38–0.41 (48%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).