Sat, Nov 16, 2013·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Detroit Red Wings 4, New York Islanders 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 27 | 111 | 14 | 01 | 0 | 423 |
| NYI | 19 | 211 | 115 | 06 | 1 | 541 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:03NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Josh Bailey · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 4:12DETDarren HelmAssists: Jonathan Ericsson, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 17:18DETPavel DatsyukPPAssists: Mikael Samuelsson, Henrik Zetterberg · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 17:50NYICasey CizikasAssists: Colin McDonald, Matt Martin · Backhand, 0.22 xG2–2
- P2 18:23DETJohan FranzenAssists: Darren Helm, Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–2
- P2 19:10NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: John Tavares, Andrew MacDonald · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–3
- P3 4:43NYICal ClutterbuckAssists: Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Aaron Ness · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–4
- P3 19:17DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Danny DeKeyser, Henrik Zetterberg · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. NYI Frans Nielsen scored
- 2. DET Henrik Zetterberg stopped
- 3. NYI Pierre-Marc Bouchard stopped
- 4. DET Pavel Datsyuk stopped
- 5. NYI John Tavares stopped
- 6. DET Todd Bertuzzi stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:17DETTodd Bertuzzi: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:44NYIMatt Donovan: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:05DETTodd Bertuzzi: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 18:50DETLuke Glendening: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:38DETJohan Franzen: High sticking double minor4 min
- OT 1:19DETJonathan Ericsson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFranzen – Helm – Tatar11:18
xG 0.62–0.28 (69%)attempts 9–8goals 2–1
- Samuelsson – Miller – Andersson7:06
xG 0.36–0.07 (83%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Zetterberg – Abdelkader2:05
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Cleary – Abdelkader – Glendening7:12
xG 0.23–0.40 (37%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson15:36
xG 0.72–0.43 (63%)attempts 10–11goals 2–2
- Quincey – DeKeyser14:13
xG 0.43–0.56 (43%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Kindl – Lashoff9:52
xG 0.51–0.67 (43%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestMcDonald – Martin – Cizikas6:35
xG 0.70–0.22 (76%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Grabner – Bailey9:56
xG 0.62–0.30 (68%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Bouchard – Regin – Clutterbuck2:37
xG 0.13–0.02 (86%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas2:38
xG 0.12–0.07 (65%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarkner – Ness10:23
xG 0.91–0.58 (61%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- MacDonald – Hamonic19:45
xG 0.76–0.46 (62%)attempts 13–14goals 2–0
- Hickey – Donovan17:12
xG 0.51–0.82 (38%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).