Sat, Nov 16, 2013·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Carolina Hurricanes 2, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 03 | 212 | 05 | 220 |
| STL | 011 | 29 | 212 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:25STLRoman PolakAssists: Chris Stewart, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 11:36STLDavid BackesAssists: Brenden Morrow, Jay Bouwmeester · Slap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 15:37CAREric StaalSHAssists: Manny Malhotra · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 16:34CARNathan GerbeSHAssists: Riley Nash · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–2
- P3 6:20STLAlexander SteenGWGAssists: Roman Polak, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 19:16STLT.J. OshieENAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Jay Bouwmeester · Wrist, 0.57 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:24CARJustin Faulk: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:51STLPatrik Berglund: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:14CARJustin Faulk: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:15STLAlex Pietrangelo: Elbowing2 min
- P2 5:04STLT.J. Oshie: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:05CARChris Terry: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 1:59STLVladimir Sobotka: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:38CARJordan Staal: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:48CARJay Harrison: Elbowing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sobotka won the faceoff against Nash
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Terry – Nash4:34
xG 0.19–0.08 (71%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Staal – Tlusty2:01
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Semin – Staal – Tlusty5:50
xG 0.05–0.22 (18%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Dwyer – Gerbe – Staal9:40
xG 0.18–0.58 (24%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hainsey – Bellemore8:57
xG 0.23–0.32 (41%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Gleason – Harrison8:11
xG 0.12–0.37 (25%)attempts 3–14goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Harrison4:09
xG 0.12–0.38 (24%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Sobotka – Stewart9:51
xG 0.55–0.07 (89%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Steen – Backes – Oshie9:51
xG 0.59–0.21 (74%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Berglund – Tarasenko – Schwartz8:48
xG 0.48–0.22 (69%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Roy – Lapierre – Reaves5:33
xG 0.25–0.15 (62%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Shattenkirk12:49
xG 0.68–0.11 (86%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo15:22
xG 0.79–0.39 (67%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Polak – Cole12:45
xG 0.61–0.29 (68%)attempts 17–8goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).