Sat, Nov 16, 2013·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Nashville Predators 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 07 | 118 | 116 | 241 |
| NSH | 210 | 213 | 37 | 730 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:28NSHMatt CullenAssists: Craig Smith, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–1
- P1 8:25NSHNick SpalingAssists: Craig Smith, Ryan Ellis · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 9:02NSHPatric HornqvistPPGWGAssists: Roman Josi, Shea Weber · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–3
- P2 18:18NSHCraig SmithAssists: Matt Cullen · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–4
- P2 18:44CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Brandon Bollig, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 6:14CHIBrandon PirriAssists: Brent Seabrook, Kris Versteeg · Wrist, 0.40 xG2–4
- P3 6:29NSHViktor StalbergAssists: Gabriel Bourque, David Legwand · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–5
- P3 12:19NSHMike FisherAssists: Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–6
- P3 14:07NSHShea WeberPPAssists: Roman Josi, David Legwand · Slap, 0.04 xG2–7
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:06CHISheldon Brookbank: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:06NSHRich Clune: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:06CHISheldon Brookbank: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:17NSHCraig Smith: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:42CHIBrandon Pirri: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:14CHIKris Versteeg: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:05CHIBrandon Bollig: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 10:24NSHShea Weber: Interference2 min
- P2 14:54NSHVictor Bartley: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:10NSHDavid Legwand: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:44CHIBryan Bickell: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBickell – Versteeg – Shaw8:14
xG 0.44–0.09 (82%)attempts 12–3goals 0–1
- Kane – Pirri – Bollig5:04
xG 0.36–0.14 (72%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Sharp – Toews – Saad6:01
xG 0.37–0.27 (58%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Sharp – Toews – Kane3:42
xG 0.10–0.09 (53%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Hjalmarsson10:21
xG 0.70–0.31 (69%)attempts 18–6goals 0–1
- Rozsival – Leddy14:57
xG 0.76–0.73 (51%)attempts 19–11goals 0–1
- Keith – Seabrook10:20
xG 0.13–0.54 (20%)attempts 11–10goals 1–2
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Stalberg – Bourque10:15
xG 0.62–0.37 (63%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Gaustad – Clune6:54
xG 0.06–0.07 (48%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Cullen – Spaling – Smith10:37
xG 0.30–0.32 (48%)attempts 6–11goals 2–1
- Fisher – Hornqvist – Wilson8:48
xG 0.31–0.57 (35%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Weber – Josi14:00
xG 0.46–0.51 (48%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
- Klein – Bartley2:10
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Bartley – Ellis12:39
xG 0.49–0.67 (42%)attempts 11–14goals 3–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).