Sat, Nov 16, 2013·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Phoenix Coyotes 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 04 | 212 | 114 | 330 |
| PHX | 211 | 210 | 29 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:58PHXMichael StonePPAssists: Mike Ribeiro, David Rundblad · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 16:55PHXMartin HanzalAssists: Lauri Korpikoski · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 1:48PHXMike RibeiroPPAssists: Martin Hanzal, Radim Vrbata · Wrist, 0.33 xG0–3
- P2 16:19TBLRichard PanikAssists: Tyler Johnson, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 17:05PHXConnor MurphyGWGAssists: Radim Vrbata, Lauri Korpikoski · Slap, 0.03 xG1–4
- P2 17:55TBLJT BrownAssists: Teddy Purcell, Andrej Sustr · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 1:37PHXShane DoanAssists: Martin Hanzal, Radim Vrbata · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–5
- P3 18:58TBLAlex KillornAssists: Martin St. Louis, Andrej Sustr · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–5
- P3 19:41PHXLauri KorpikoskiENAssists: Martin Hanzal · Wrist, 0.46 xG3–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:15PHXOliver Ekman-Larsson: Boarding2 min
- P1 14:29TBLAndrej Sustr: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 0:00TBLAlex Killorn: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 1:00TBLB.J. Crombeen: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:13PHXDavid Moss: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Vermette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMalone – Crombeen – Thompson9:02
xG 0.35–0.07 (84%)attempts 13–3goals 0–1
- Filppula – Purcell – Brown12:13
xG 0.44–0.37 (55%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Johnson – Panik – Palat9:42
xG 0.13–0.11 (55%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Killorn – Connolly11:15
xG 0.26–0.25 (51%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Sustr11:06
xG 0.40–0.15 (73%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Carle – Gudas16:03
xG 0.36–0.26 (58%)attempts 16–13goals 0–2
- Hedman – Sustr4:18
xG 0.16–0.07 (68%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- Halpern – Chipchura – Szwarz8:13
xG 0.12–0.07 (62%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Doan – Ribeiro – Moss11:25
xG 0.34–0.31 (53%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Korpikoski – Hanzal10:11
xG 0.15–0.28 (35%)attempts 5–10goals 2–0
- Vermette – Klinkhammer – Boedker11:05
xG 0.22–0.47 (32%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Murphy16:55
xG 0.52–0.15 (77%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Stone – Ekman-Larsson13:53
xG 0.21–0.18 (54%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Rundblad4:00
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).