Sat, Nov 16, 2013·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Edmonton Oilers 4, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 04 | 010 | 410 | 424 |
| CGY | 112 | 112 | 011 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:23CGYSean MonahanAssists: Jiri Hudler · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 17:08CGYDennis WidemanAssists: Matt Stajan, Sven Baertschi · Slap, 0.12 xG0–2
- P3 3:41EDMJordan EberleAssists: Taylor Hall, Anton Belov · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 8:18EDMAles HemskyAssists: Sam Gagner, Nail Yakupov · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 10:23EDMDavid PerronGWGAssists: Boyd Gordon, Ryan Smyth · Snap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 19:12EDMBoyd GordonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.64 xG4–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 13:45EDMLuke Gazdic: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:45CGYBrian McGrattan: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:49EDMAndrew Ference: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:49EDMAndrew Ference: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:49CGYLee Stempniak: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:53CGYJoe Colborne: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:42EDMAles Hemsky: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 10:11EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:36CGYSven Baertschi: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Gagner – Yakupov12:08
xG 0.39–0.25 (61%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Joensuu – Gazdic – Acton3:33
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins13:28
xG 0.47–0.63 (43%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
- Smyth – Gordon – Perron12:04
xG 0.18–0.82 (18%)attempts 6–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Larsen3:10
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Schultz – Petry3:38
xG 0.29–0.15 (66%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Petry – Belov4:07
xG 0.21–0.16 (57%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Stempniak – Baertschi9:26
xG 0.73–0.15 (83%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Cammalleri – Hudler – Monahan12:08
xG 0.67–0.22 (76%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Jones – Galiardi – Backlund9:55
xG 0.20–0.03 (87%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- McGrattan – Colborne – Bouma2:34
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Russell19:06
xG 1.13–0.59 (66%)attempts 20–18goals 2–2
- Smid – Smith8:51
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Butler – Brodie12:46
xG 0.33–0.11 (74%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).