Sun, Nov 17, 2013·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 110 | 27 | 15 | 422 |
| OTT | 05 | 013 | 112 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:50CBJRyan JohansenPPAssists: Ryan Murray, James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 4:13CBJR.J. UmbergerPPGWGAssists: Ryan Johansen, Fedor Tyutin · Tip-in, 0.36 xG2–0
- P2 12:07CBJFedor TyutinPPAssists: Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–0
- P3 5:27CBJDerek MacKenzieAssists: Mark Letestu, Blake Comeau · Wrist, 0.43 xG4–0
- P3 17:33OTTErik KarlssonPPAssists: Chris Phillips, Milan Michalek · Slap, 0.09 xG4–1
Penalties (16)
- P1 4:38OTTMarc Methot: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 12:03CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:10CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Holding2 min
- P2 4:05OTTMark Borowiecki: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:42CBJCam Atkinson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 10:10OTTEric Gryba: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:43OTTMark Borowiecki: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:49CBJR.J. Umberger: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:44OTTMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:44CBJJames Wisniewski: Instigator2 min
- P3 5:44CBJJames Wisniewski: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:44CBJJames Wisniewski: Misconduct10 min
- P3 5:44OTTMark Borowiecki: Elbowing5 min
- P3 5:44OTTMark Borowiecki: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 15:56CBJMichael Chaput: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:13CBJDavid Savard: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Letestu won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMacKenzie – Comeau – Letestu6:56
xG 0.87–0.18 (83%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Umberger – Foligno – Johansen7:40
xG 0.13–0.05 (75%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner9:23
xG 0.40–0.47 (46%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Boll – Anisimov – Chaput4:49
xG 0.07–0.16 (32%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Johnson12:40
xG 1.17–0.14 (89%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Nikitin – Savard12:56
xG 0.27–0.16 (63%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Wisniewski – Murray10:06
xG 0.17–0.71 (19%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestCondra – Grant – Zibanejad3:38
xG 0.33–0.03 (92%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Conacher9:16
xG 0.46–0.27 (63%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Neil – Greening – Smith9:43
xG 0.24–0.19 (55%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Ryan – Zibanejad2:16
xG 0.04–0.01 (80%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Borowiecki5:06
xG 0.32–0.01 (98%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Gryba – Cowen10:05
xG 0.15–0.42 (27%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Methot – Karlsson14:01
xG 0.39–1.05 (27%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).