Sun, Nov 17, 2013·Verizon Center, Washington
St. Louis Blues 1, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 010 | 118 | 019 | 147 |
| WSH | 39 | 13 | 08 | 420 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:17WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Steve Oleksy · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 12:34WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: Karl Alzner, Nicklas Backstrom · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–2
- P1 15:41WSHMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Jason Chimera, Joel Ward · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–3
- P2 5:29STLVladimir SobotkaPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Jay Bouwmeester · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 9:27WSHJohn CarlsonPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 9:44WSHTyson Strachan: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:05WSHMartin Erat: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:05WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:05STLRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 6:05WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:18STLVladimir Sobotka: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:14STLAlexander Steen: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:48WSHJason Chimera: Interference2 min
- P3 10:29WSHBrooks Laich: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:52STLDavid Backes: Interference2 min
- P3 13:41STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Laich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSobotka – Tarasenko – Schwartz9:13
xG 0.83–0.13 (86%)attempts 22–2goals 0–0
- Morrow – Lapierre – Reaves3:11
xG 0.11–0.04 (76%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Lapierre – Reaves – Paajarvi4:13
xG 0.14–0.10 (59%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Roy – Stewart – Paajarvi3:01
xG 0.10–0.08 (53%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Shattenkirk2:38
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk12:49
xG 0.41–0.20 (67%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Polak – Cole8:05
xG 0.43–0.31 (58%)attempts 9–6goals 0–2
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Ward – Grabovski10:20
xG 0.71–0.22 (76%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson12:22
xG 0.52–0.38 (58%)attempts 11–16goals 2–0
- Latta – Volpatti – Wilson6:33
xG 0.04–0.28 (14%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Erat – Laich – Brouwer10:21
xG 0.21–0.60 (26%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Carlson12:28
xG 0.99–0.22 (82%)attempts 16–12goals 2–0
- Urbom – Oleksy13:01
xG 0.32–0.59 (35%)attempts 7–17goals 1–0
- Strachan – Schmidt17:03
xG 0.17–0.99 (14%)attempts 9–25goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).