Sun, Nov 17, 2013·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Dallas Stars 2, Vancouver Canucks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 17 | 06 | 110 | 223 |
| VAN | 013 | 020 | 110 | 143 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:33DALValeri NichushkinAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P3 1:42DALErik ColeGWGAssists: Cody Eakin, Alex Chiasson · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P3 3:06VANHenrik SedinPPAssists: Ryan Kesler, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:48DALJamie Benn: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:25DALJamie Benn: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:46VANAlexander Edler: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:27DALShawn Horcoff: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:22DALAlex Goligoski: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:07VANHenrik Sedin: Interference2 min
- P3 2:48DALRyan Garbutt: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:55VANAlexandre Burrows: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestCole – Chiasson – Eakin10:29
xG 0.66–0.37 (64%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Benn – Seguin – Nichushkin13:21
xG 0.42–0.40 (51%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
- Horcoff – Fiddler – Peverley7:10
xG 0.16–0.22 (42%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Morin – Roussel – Garbutt6:22
xG 0.14–0.42 (25%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Benn11:24
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Daley – Goligoski14:21
xG 0.59–0.67 (47%)attempts 12–19goals 1–0
- Robidas – Dillon16:23
xG 0.56–0.71 (44%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows11:30
xG 0.77–0.37 (67%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Booth – Santorelli – Kassian7:42
xG 0.32–0.09 (78%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Higgins – Kesler – Richardson2:07
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Richardson – Booth – Kassian3:03
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Edler5:12
xG 0.32–0.01 (98%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Tanev13:15
xG 0.50–0.34 (59%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Edler – Garrison11:08
xG 0.64–0.55 (54%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).