Mon, Nov 18, 2013·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Boston Bruins 4, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 25 | 011 | 214 | 430 |
| CAR | 18 | 06 | 010 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:31BOSReilly SmithPPAssists: Carl Soderberg, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–0
- P1 10:24BOSCarl SoderbergGWGAssists: Dennis Seidenberg, Reilly Smith · Deflected, 0.08 xG2–0
- P1 19:55CARTuomo RuutuAssists: Eric Staal, Drayson Bowman · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 10:29BOSJohnny BoychukUnassisted · Slap, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 19:49BOSMilan LucicENAssists: Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.65 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:29CARJiri Tlusty: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 15:54BOSJordan Caron: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:47CARJiri Tlusty: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:55BOSJohnny Boychuk: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:52BOSGregory Campbell: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 3:27BOSDennis Seidenberg: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Soderberg – Smith9:37
xG 0.77–0.09 (89%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Iginla – Krejci – Lucic14:06
xG 0.56–0.37 (60%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Campbell – Paille – Caron5:00
xG 0.24–0.66 (27%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Bergeron – Marchand11:05
xG 0.22–0.78 (22%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Bartkowski12:50
xG 0.68–0.24 (74%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Seidenberg – Krug12:37
xG 0.73–0.71 (51%)attempts 21–15goals 1–0
- Chara – Seidenberg2:38
xG 0.13–0.12 (53%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Staal – Bowman12:20
xG 0.94–0.16 (85%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
- Dwyer – Gerbe – Staal12:42
xG 1.00–0.95 (51%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Malhotra – Tlusty10:20
xG 0.25–0.50 (34%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Faulk12:52
xG 0.78–0.23 (77%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Gleason – Murphy5:31
xG 0.64–0.24 (73%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Murphy5:08
xG 0.49–0.50 (50%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).