Tue, Nov 19, 2013·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Ottawa Senators 2, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 011 | 114 | 19 | 234 |
| PHI | 112 | 114 | 316 | 542 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:44PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Kimmo Timonen · Snap, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 5:18PHISean CouturierAssists: Kimmo Timonen · Snap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 8:13OTTClarke MacArthurPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Chris Phillips · Snap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 3:12OTTKyle TurrisPPAssists: Marc Methot, Clarke MacArthur · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 11:30PHIKimmo TimonenGWGAssists: Matt Read, Steve Downie · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 11:53PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–4
- P3 19:24PHIAdam HallENAssists: Nicklas Grossmann · Wrist, 0.55 xG2–5
Penalties (15)
- P1 0:57PHIBrayden Schenn: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:35PHIWayne Simmonds: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 14:23PHIClaude Giroux: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:23OTTKyle Turris: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:17PHIBrayden Schenn: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:01OTTMark Borowiecki: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:01PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:58OTTColin Greening: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:58PHILuke Schenn: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 3:02PHIZac Rinaldo: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:58OTTCory Conacher: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:15OTTBobby Ryan: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:54PHIKimmo Timonen: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
- P3 15:27OTTErik Condra: Holding2 min
- P3 19:09PHIBraydon Coburn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- MacArthur – Ryan – Turris11:39
xG 0.62–0.64 (49%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Condra – Grant – Zibanejad6:35
xG 0.05–0.36 (13%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Neil – Greening – Smith7:48
xG 0.15–0.71 (18%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Spezza – Michalek – Conacher8:34
xG 0.02–0.80 (2%)attempts 1–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Phillips – Borowiecki7:19
xG 0.05–0.30 (14%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Methot – Karlsson18:53
xG 0.62–1.16 (35%)attempts 15–25goals 0–1
- Gryba – Cowen12:39
xG 0.14–1.05 (12%)attempts 7–14goals 0–2
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – Simmonds – Schenn8:51
xG 0.86–0.08 (91%)attempts 15–3goals 1–0
- Downie – Read – Couturier8:16
xG 0.70–0.28 (71%)attempts 11–3goals 2–0
- Hartnell – Giroux – Voracek10:43
xG 0.70–0.34 (67%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Hall – Rosehill – Rinaldo2:53
xG 0.20–0.01 (94%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Gustafsson10:30
xG 1.12–0.15 (88%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
- Timonen – Coburn11:00
xG 0.89–0.26 (77%)attempts 15–7goals 2–0
- Streit – Grossmann11:39
xG 0.55–0.36 (61%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).