Tue, Nov 19, 2013·Centre Bell, Montreal
Minnesota Wild 2, Montréal Canadiens 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 07 | 08 | 212 | 227 |
| MTL | 09 | 411 | 28 | 628 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:57MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: David Desharnais, P.K. Subban · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 10:06MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: David Desharnais, Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 13:36MTLMax PaciorettyPPGWGAssists: Brendan Gallagher, P.K. Subban · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–3
- P2 16:16MTLMichael BournivalAssists: Travis Moen · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–4
- P3 4:42MTLDaniel BrièreAssists: Brian Gionta, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–5
- P3 5:30MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Kyle Brodziak, Matt Cooke · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–5
- P3 7:59MTLAlex GalchenyukPPAssists: Andrei Markov, Brandon Prust · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–6
- P3 19:58MINDany HeatleyPPAssists: Ryan Suter, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:50MINJared Spurgeon: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:01MTLBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:01MINZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:14MTLAlexei Emelin: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:42MINJared Spurgeon: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:35MINClayton Stoner: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 7:35MINKyle Brodziak: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:00MTLBrendan Gallagher: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:20MINMarco Scandella: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:11MTLDaniel Brière: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Parise – Coyle14:12
xG 0.61–0.15 (81%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Pominville – Granlund – Niederreiter9:27
xG 0.13–0.18 (42%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Cooke – Brodziak – Fontaine6:58
xG 0.08–0.26 (25%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Heatley – Konopka – Fontaine2:23
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Prosser12:40
xG 0.78–0.27 (75%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Scandella – Spurgeon10:22
xG 0.54–0.28 (66%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon4:56
xG 0.27–0.02 (92%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher10:29
xG 0.45–0.26 (64%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Moen – White – Bournival6:05
xG 0.22–0.31 (42%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Brière – Gionta – Plekanec11:22
xG 0.21–0.39 (35%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Prust – Eller – Galchenyuk11:00
xG 0.38–0.71 (35%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouillon – Diaz12:39
xG 0.31–0.11 (73%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Markov – Subban13:54
xG 0.60–0.71 (46%)attempts 11–13goals 3–1
- Bouillon – Emelin2:06
xG 0.02–0.24 (8%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).