Tue, Nov 19, 2013·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Nashville Predators 2, Detroit Red Wings 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 010 | 17 | 18 | 225 |
| DET | 07 | 09 | 011 | 027 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 19:55NSHShea WeberPPGWGAssists: David Legwand · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P3 7:13NSHGabriel BourqueAssists: Viktor Stalberg · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–0
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:45DETBrian Lashoff: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:03NSHMatt Cullen: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 6:22DETJonathan Ericsson: Holding2 min
- P2 10:59NSHMike Fisher: Holding2 min
- P2 15:04DETNiklas Kronwall: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:00DETDrew Miller: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:42DETDaniel Cleary: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 16:15NSHViktor Stalberg: Holding2 min
- P3 16:15DETMikael Samuelsson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Hornqvist – Wilson11:25
xG 0.52–0.04 (92%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Legwand – Stalberg – Bourque9:17
xG 0.35–0.23 (61%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Gaustad – Clune5:05
xG 0.01–0.00 (91%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Stalberg – Spaling2:24
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Jones14:49
xG 0.49–0.30 (62%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi17:00
xG 0.33–0.30 (53%)attempts 9–19goals 0–0
- Bartley – Ellis8:18
xG 0.03–0.22 (13%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCleary – Samuelsson – Abdelkader2:52
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Datsyuk – Zetterberg12:00
xG 0.24–0.16 (60%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Samuelsson – Miller – Abdelkader4:46
xG 0.10–0.03 (76%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Franzen – Helm – Tatar7:17
xG 0.13–0.49 (21%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKindl – Lashoff8:30
xG 0.31–0.07 (83%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Kindl – Smith2:32
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Quincey – Smith10:19
xG 0.19–0.15 (56%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).