Tue, Nov 19, 2013·Pepsi Center, Denver
Chicago Blackhawks 1, Colorado Avalanche 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 017 | 010 | 110 | 137 |
| COL | 38 | 17 | 18 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:37COLPaul StastnyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 12:21COLGabriel LandeskogGWGAssists: Andre Benoit, Ryan O'Reilly · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 13:17COLJohn MitchellAssists: Max Talbot, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–3
- P2 18:38COLPA ParenteauAssists: Paul Stastny, Jan Hejda · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–4
- P3 1:44COLCody McLeodAssists: Tyson Barrie, Max Talbot · Wrist, 0.38 xG0–5
- P3 12:10CHIBrandon SaadAssists: Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith · Backhand, 0.22 xG1–5
Penalties (2)
- P1 2:29COLBrad Malone: Boarding2 min
- P3 7:58CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Pirri – Saad3:18
xG 0.54–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Smith – Kruger – Bollig4:45
xG 0.58–0.16 (79%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Sharp – Toews – Saad7:48
xG 0.37–0.33 (53%)attempts 8–6goals 0–2
- Sharp – Toews – Kane4:38
xG 0.03–0.05 (37%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook15:53
xG 1.05–0.56 (65%)attempts 23–12goals 1–2
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson14:33
xG 0.77–0.67 (53%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Rozsival – Leddy11:51
xG 0.23–0.16 (59%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestTalbot – Mitchell – McLeod12:27
xG 0.66–0.32 (68%)attempts 8–15goals 2–0
- O'Reilly – Landeskog – MacKinnon15:41
xG 0.56–0.53 (51%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Parenteau – Stastny – McGinn12:18
xG 0.29–0.76 (27%)attempts 8–13goals 2–1
- Bordeleau – Cliche – Malone8:37
xG 0.01–0.50 (2%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Barrie16:48
xG 0.98–0.48 (67%)attempts 16–14goals 2–0
- Hejda – Johnson17:22
xG 0.20–0.60 (25%)attempts 6–14goals 2–0
- Guenin – Benoit15:01
xG 0.29–1.16 (20%)attempts 9–22goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).