Tue, Nov 19, 2013·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Columbus Blue Jackets 0, Edmonton Oilers 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 03 | 07 | 04 | 014 |
| EDM | 315 | 39 | 18 | 732 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:37EDMJordan EberleGWGAssists: Corey Potter, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–1
- P1 12:01EDMDavid PerronPPAssists: Nail Yakupov, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Backhand, 0.30 xG0–2
- P1 16:06EDMRyan SmythPPAssists: Sam Gagner, Ales Hemsky · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–3
- P2 8:30EDMDavid PerronAssists: Ryan Smyth, Boyd Gordon · Snap, 0.09 xG0–4
- P2 10:36EDMNail YakupovPPAssists: David Perron · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–5
- P2 15:25EDMJustin SchultzAssists: David Perron, Ryan Smyth · Snap, 0.10 xG0–6
- P3 16:43EDMTaylor HallAssists: Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–7
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:47CBJNick Foligno: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 12:21EDMLuke Gazdic: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:43CBJDavid Savard: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 2:36EDMLuke Gazdic: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:36CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:33EDMAndrew Ference: Diving2 min
- P2 4:33CBJBoone Jenner: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:04CBJJack Johnson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 2:21CBJNikita Nikitin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Letestu won the faceoff against Gagner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner9:06
xG 0.14–0.24 (36%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Boll – Anisimov – Chaput5:24
xG 0.07–0.27 (20%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
- MacKenzie – Comeau – Letestu8:27
xG 0.45–0.78 (37%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
- Umberger – Foligno – Johansen9:57
xG 0.34–0.74 (32%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Wisniewski – Murray14:50
xG 0.55–0.52 (51%)attempts 18–13goals 0–1
- Nikitin – Savard16:55
xG 0.42–0.89 (32%)attempts 10–16goals 0–2
- Tyutin – Johnson18:37
xG 0.38–0.88 (30%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestJoensuu – Gazdic – Acton8:45
xG 0.34–0.19 (64%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Smyth – Gordon – Perron10:11
xG 0.31–0.24 (57%)attempts 6–7goals 2–0
- Hemsky – Gagner – Yakupov11:38
xG 0.49–0.45 (52%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins11:56
xG 0.36–0.37 (49%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Belov15:05
xG 0.91–0.44 (67%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- Schultz – Potter11:06
xG 0.73–0.30 (71%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Ference – Petry15:41
xG 0.44–0.37 (54%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).