Tue, Nov 19, 2013·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Los Angeles Kings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 07 | 12 | 112 | 221 |
| LAK | 210 | 311 | 010 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:58LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Drew Doughty, Justin Williams · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 16:49LAKMatt FrattinPPAssists: Slava Voynov, Jarret Stoll · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 2:38LAKJustin WilliamsGWGAssists: Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–3
- P2 15:08LAKDwight KingSHAssists: Linden Vey · Deflected, 0.11 xG0–4
- P2 16:17TBLValtteri FilppulaPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–4
- P2 17:15LAKDustin BrownAssists: Matt Frattin · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–5
- P3 1:22TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Tyler Johnson · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:10TBLRadko Gudas: Holding2 min
- P1 15:11TBLAlex Killorn: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:26LAKJustin Williams: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:38TBLBrett Connolly: Interference2 min
- P2 3:50TBLPierre-Cedric Labrie: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 13:46LAKJake Muzzin: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 15:43LAKDaniel Carcillo: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Connolly won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Connolly – Brown5:19
xG 0.29–0.13 (70%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Filppula – Purcell – Brown3:50
xG 0.01–0.02 (42%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Killorn – Connolly2:58
xG 0.15–0.20 (42%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Johnson – Panik – Palat9:47
xG 0.41–0.53 (43%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalo – Carle6:23
xG 0.59–0.14 (81%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Salo – Korobov3:30
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Carle – Gudas7:37
xG 0.06–0.39 (13%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestRichards – King – Toffoli6:34
xG 0.50–0.23 (69%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Lewis – Vey – Pearson6:49
xG 0.25–0.15 (62%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Williams – Brown – Kopitar9:22
xG 0.10–0.22 (31%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Stoll – Carcillo – Frattin8:54
xG 0.13–0.65 (17%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Doughty13:43
xG 1.03–0.27 (79%)attempts 20–8goals 1–0
- Regehr – Voynov12:20
xG 0.46–0.39 (54%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Martinez12:46
xG 0.15–0.65 (18%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).