Wed, Nov 20, 2013·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Minnesota Wild 4, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 16 | 210 | 19 | 425 |
| OTT | 218 | 012 | 17 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:54OTTKyle TurrisSHAssists: Clarke MacArthur · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 6:53MINJason PominvillePPAssists: Zach Parise, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 11:11OTTMika ZibanejadAssists: Derek Grant, Erik Condra · Backhand, 0.33 xG1–2
- P2 3:00MINJonas BrodinAssists: Dany Heatley, Justin Fontaine · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P2 6:15MINDany HeatleyAssists: Mikko Koivu, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–2
- P3 8:57OTTMilan MichalekPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Erik Karlsson · Slap, 0.21 xG3–3
- P3 17:03MINMikko KoivuGWGAssists: Zach Parise, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:36OTTJared Cowen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 3:46MINKyle Brodziak: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:46OTTMark Borowiecki: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:23MINClayton Stoner: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:23OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:06OTTMark Borowiecki: Boarding2 min
- P2 18:36OTTDerek Grant: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:11MINDany Heatley: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:39MINJason Pominville: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Parise – Coyle13:39
xG 0.46–0.18 (72%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Cooke – Brodziak – Niederreiter11:49
xG 0.19–0.43 (31%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Pominville – Zucker – Granlund9:14
xG 0.16–0.46 (26%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
- Heatley – Konopka – Fontaine3:48
xG 0.08–0.90 (9%)attempts 3–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Brodin19:59
xG 0.72–0.40 (64%)attempts 13–18goals 2–0
- Scandella – Spurgeon13:55
xG 0.30–0.51 (37%)attempts 10–19goals 1–0
- Stoner – Dumba7:43
xG 0.18–1.16 (13%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Condra – Grant2:52
xG 0.20–0.05 (79%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Smith – Conacher – Zibanejad7:38
xG 0.27–0.19 (59%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Greening11:57
xG 0.32–0.26 (55%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Neil – Smith – Conacher5:04
xG 0.05–0.15 (27%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWiercioch – Cowen14:52
xG 1.09–0.24 (82%)attempts 23–7goals 1–0
- Methot – Karlsson15:37
xG 0.55–0.40 (58%)attempts 17–13goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Cowen2:09
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).