Wed, Nov 20, 2013·Verizon Center, Washington
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Washington Capitals 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 217 | 115 | 18 | 440 |
| WSH | 06 | 08 | 04 | 018 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:38PITPaul MartinGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 11:57PITBeau BennettAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 19:31PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: James Neal, Chris Kunitz · Snap, 0.05 xG3–0
- P3 7:16PITJames NealAssists: Paul Martin, Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.09 xG4–0
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:24PITCraig Adams: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:47WSHSteve Oleksy: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:56PITChris Kunitz: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:35PITTanner Glass: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:37WSHMartin Erat: Holding2 min
- P2 18:26WSHTom Wilson: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Laich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Malkin – Neal9:11
xG 0.38–0.11 (78%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Sutter – Gibbons5:35
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Bennett8:39
xG 0.28–0.14 (67%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Adams – Glass – Vitale6:10
xG 0.09–0.03 (74%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Martin17:42
xG 0.46–0.10 (83%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Engelland – Niskanen11:07
xG 0.45–0.11 (81%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Letang – Maatta14:25
xG 0.48–0.24 (67%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Erat – Laich – Brouwer9:15
xG 0.10–0.19 (33%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson11:37
xG 0.14–0.26 (35%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Latta – Volpatti – Wilson8:13
xG 0.14–0.26 (34%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Chimera – Ward – Grabovski11:45
xG 0.16–0.60 (21%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Alzner – Carlson14:03
xG 0.12–0.40 (23%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Strachan – Schmidt16:25
xG 0.19–0.55 (26%)attempts 10–19goals 0–1
- Urbom – Oleksy14:51
xG 0.18–0.70 (21%)attempts 8–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).