Thu, Nov 21, 2013·TD Garden, Boston
St. Louis Blues 3, Boston Bruins 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 18 | 111 | 06 | 01 | 2 | 326 |
| BOS | 110 | 18 | 011 | 02 | 1 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:20BOSGregory CampbellAssists: Torey Krug, Daniel Paille · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 18:51STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Derek Roy, Barret Jackman · Deflected, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 16:04STLDavid BackesAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 18:41BOSCarl SoderbergAssists: Reilly Smith, Chris Kelly · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. BOS Patrice Bergeron scored
- 2. STL T.J. Oshie stopped
- 3. BOS David Krejci stopped
- 4. STL Alexander Steen scored
- 5. BOS Jarome Iginla stopped
- 6. STL Chris Stewart stopped
- 7. BOS Chris Kelly stopped
- 8. STL Derek Roy scored
Penalties (2)
- P3 1:54BOSMatt Bartkowski: Holding2 min
- P3 8:56STLBarret Jackman: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Stewart – Schwartz6:09
xG 0.20–0.11 (64%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Steen – Backes – Oshie13:54
xG 0.40–0.37 (52%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Sobotka – Tarasenko – Schwartz4:33
xG 0.16–0.18 (47%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Morrow – Roy – Stewart3:22
xG 0.08–0.10 (44%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Shattenkirk15:59
xG 0.58–0.31 (65%)attempts 14–10goals 2–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo21:46
xG 0.20–0.44 (31%)attempts 15–22goals 0–0
- Polak – Cole14:51
xG 0.31–0.83 (27%)attempts 10–21goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- Kelly – Soderberg – Smith11:41
xG 0.38–0.35 (52%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille8:07
xG 0.08–0.10 (45%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Eriksson – Bergeron – Marchand13:35
xG 0.54–0.58 (48%)attempts 19–14goals 0–0
- Iginla – Krejci – Lucic14:42
xG 0.26–0.31 (45%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Krug9:52
xG 0.25–0.02 (94%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- Bartkowski – Miller11:10
xG 0.23–0.16 (59%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Miller – Krug2:54
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).