Thu, Nov 21, 2013·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Colorado Avalanche 4, Phoenix Coyotes 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 08 | 211 | 16 | 15 | 430 |
| PHX | 015 | 113 | 214 | 02 | 344 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:32COLJohn MitchellPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, PA Parenteau · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
- P2 15:50COLAndre BenoitUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 17:10PHXMichael StoneAssists: Kyle Chipchura, Paul Bissonnette · Slap, 0.01 xG2–1
- P3 10:40PHXMartin HanzalAssists: Tim Kennedy, Rostislav Klesla · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–2
- P3 14:06PHXAntoine VermettePPAssists: Shane Doan, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.50 xG2–3
- P3 16:46COLCody McLeodAssists: Andre Benoit, John Mitchell · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–3
- OT 4:18COLRyan O'ReillyPPGWGAssists: PA Parenteau, Andre Benoit · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:36COLCory Sarich: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 16:32COLAndre Benoit: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:25PHXMichael Stone: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:53PHXAntoine Vermette: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:27PHXMike Ribeiro: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 12:09COLJan Hejda: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:32PHXMartin Hanzal: Charging2 min
- OT 3:25PHXKeith Yandle: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Landeskog – MacKinnon14:03
xG 0.66–0.21 (76%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Bordeleau – Cliche – Malone4:32
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Talbot – Mitchell – McLeod10:25
xG 0.24–0.47 (33%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Parenteau – Stastny – McGinn13:42
xG 0.38–0.96 (28%)attempts 11–22goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSarich – Benoit9:15
xG 0.44–0.28 (61%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
- Guenin – Barrie12:05
xG 0.15–0.63 (19%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
- Hejda – Johnson18:10
xG 0.37–0.95 (28%)attempts 9–23goals 0–1
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Hanzal – Kennedy11:09
xG 0.90–0.14 (87%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Doan – Ribeiro – Moss9:50
xG 0.48–0.23 (68%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Halpern – Bissonnette – Chipchura4:45
xG 0.24–0.03 (90%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Vermette – Klinkhammer – Boedker10:45
xG 0.27–0.16 (62%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlesla – Rundblad12:18
xG 1.10–0.26 (81%)attempts 24–4goals 1–1
- Stone – Ekman-Larsson15:03
xG 0.30–0.28 (52%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Morris – Yandle17:48
xG 0.58–0.79 (42%)attempts 18–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).