Thu, Nov 21, 2013·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Florida Panthers 1, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 06 | 113 | 06 | 125 |
| EDM | 112 | 215 | 18 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:57EDMJordan EberlePPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Taylor Hall · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 6:10EDMSam GagnerGWGAssists: Nail Yakupov, Corey Potter · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 10:54EDMDavid PerronPPAssists: Justin Schultz, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Slap, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 16:34FLAScottie UpshallAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Brad Boyes · Snap, 0.28 xG1–3
- P3 18:49EDMJordan EberleENAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.62 xG1–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:28FLATom Gilbert: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 6:31EDMBoyd Gordon: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:43FLAJimmy Hayes: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:41EDMNail Yakupov: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:31FLABrad Boyes: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:33FLAScottie Upshall: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 1:23FLABrian Campbell: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:19EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 4:25FLAScottie Upshall: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:25EDMAndrew Ference: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:25EDMAndrew Ference: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:57EDMNick Schultz: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goc won the faceoff against Gagner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Upshall – Barkov9:51
xG 0.58–0.28 (67%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Upshall – Matthias – Hayes3:11
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Barch – Matthias – Hayes2:42
xG 0.08–0.15 (34%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Bjugstad – Huberdeau6:41
xG 0.07–0.27 (22%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMottau – Gilroy8:09
xG 0.40–0.25 (62%)attempts 4–9goals 1–1
- Campbell – Gilbert14:33
xG 0.79–0.84 (48%)attempts 21–17goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Gudbranson13:29
xG 0.31–0.58 (35%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSmyth – Gordon – Perron11:09
xG 0.83–0.10 (89%)attempts 18–5goals 0–0
- Joensuu – Gazdic – Acton4:34
xG 0.11–0.19 (37%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins9:47
xG 0.33–0.50 (40%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Gagner – Yakupov10:40
xG 0.32–0.58 (36%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Belov12:53
xG 0.46–0.32 (59%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Ference – Petry13:47
xG 0.48–0.37 (57%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Schultz – Potter10:55
xG 0.35–0.59 (37%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).