Thu, Nov 21, 2013·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
New Jersey Devils 2, Los Angeles Kings 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 02 | 03 | 17 | 13 | 215 |
| LAK | 014 | 013 | 15 | 03 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 5:52NJDRyan CarterAssists: Michael Ryder, Stephen Gionta · Backhand, 0.02 xG1–0
- P3 6:57LAKJustin WilliamsAssists: Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- OT 2:30NJDJaromir JagrGWGAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Dainius Zubrus · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:54LAKDrew Doughty: Interference2 min
- P1 12:35NJDAndy Greene: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:07LAKDaniel Carcillo: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:07NJDCam Janssen: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:24NJDStephen Gionta: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:52NJDJaromir Jagr: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:44NJDRyan Carter: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:00LAKJarret Stoll: Holding2 min
- OT 0:17NJDJaromir Jagr: Holding2 min
- OT 0:17LAKDustin Brown: Diving2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Janssen – Tedenby – Loktionov2:57
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Bernier – Gionta – Carter5:26
xG 0.01–0.05 (19%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Bernier – Tedenby – Loktionov2:09
xG 0.02–0.10 (14%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Jagr – Zubrus – Zajac12:26
xG 0.08–0.88 (8%)attempts 6–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHarrold – Larsson6:28
xG 0.19–0.09 (68%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – Gelinas7:44
xG 0.21–0.14 (61%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Zidlicky – Greene8:05
xG 0.07–0.09 (44%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestRichards – King – Toffoli6:31
xG 0.59–0.02 (97%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Lewis – Vey – Pearson3:26
xG 0.55–0.02 (97%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Williams – Brown – Kopitar13:48
xG 0.52–0.34 (60%)attempts 24–11goals 1–0
- Stoll – Carcillo – Frattin9:03
xG 0.19–0.13 (58%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRegehr – Voynov14:26
xG 0.97–0.10 (91%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Doughty16:50
xG 0.90–0.38 (70%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Martinez13:41
xG 0.38–0.21 (64%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).