Fri, Nov 22, 2013·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
New York Islanders 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 013 | 313 | 09 | 335 |
| PIT | 213 | 112 | 19 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:04PITChris KunitzPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 7:55PITChris KunitzPPAssists: James Neal, Paul Martin · Slap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 1:46NYIThomas VanekAssists: Kyle Okposo, Radek Martinek · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 6:25PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: James Neal, Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P2 11:33NYIColin McDonaldAssists: Casey Cizikas · Snap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 12:54NYIThomas VanekAssists: Kyle Okposo, John Tavares · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–3
- P3 18:44PITSidney CrosbyGWGAssists: Pascal Dupuis, Chris Kunitz · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:54NYIPeter Regin: Concealing puck2 min · PPG
- P1 4:41NYIThomas Vanek: Interference2 min
- P1 7:42NYITravis Hamonic: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:28PITDeryk Engelland: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:50PITEvgeni Malkin: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:20NYIPierre-Marc Bouchard: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:11PITMatt Niskanen: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:01PITMatt Niskanen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 15:58PITCraig Adams: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:50PITTanner Glass: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Neal won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Okposo – Tavares11:46
xG 0.69–0.18 (79%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- Nielsen – Grabner – Bailey7:19
xG 0.39–0.23 (63%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Bouchard – Regin – Clutterbuck8:56
xG 0.16–0.36 (31%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- McDonald – Martin – Cizikas6:22
xG 0.11–0.39 (22%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartinek – Hickey10:19
xG 0.36–0.15 (71%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Hickey – Hamonic3:29
xG 0.13–0.07 (66%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic9:40
xG 0.21–0.28 (42%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Malkin – Neal3:31
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Sutter – Gibbons3:08
xG 0.22–0.07 (77%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
- Dupuis – Malkin – Neal5:43
xG 0.23–0.14 (62%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby3:58
xG 0.16–0.11 (59%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Letang5:37
xG 0.39–0.12 (77%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Letang – Maatta9:07
xG 0.31–0.08 (80%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Engelland – Maatta2:26
xG 0.10–0.03 (79%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).