Fri, Nov 22, 2013·Verizon Center, Washington
Montréal Canadiens 3, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 313 | 014 | 04 | 331 |
| WSH | 113 | 03 | 111 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:53MTLTravis MoenAssists: Michael Bournival, Ryan White · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 11:53MTLDavid DesharnaisAssists: Josh Gorges, Andrei Markov · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–0
- P1 13:40MTLDaniel BrièrePPGWGAssists: Josh Gorges, Alexei Emelin · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–0
- P1 19:37WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Troy Brouwer · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–1
- P3 12:27WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: John Carlson, Mikhail Grabovski · Deflected, 0.10 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:27MTLP.K. Subban: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:27WSHTroy Brouwer: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 12:13WSHMartin Erat: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:36WSHJohn Carlson: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:28MTLPeter Budaj: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:15MTLAlexei Emelin: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:00WSHBrooks Laich: Holding2 min
- P3 5:34WSHNicklas Backstrom: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:27WSHAlex Ovechkin: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Eller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher10:54
xG 0.94–0.35 (73%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Moen – White – Bournival4:30
xG 0.27–0.02 (92%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Brière – Gionta – Plekanec7:08
xG 0.15–0.19 (45%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Brière – White – Bournival2:25
xG 0.06–0.11 (34%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban14:42
xG 1.02–0.51 (67%)attempts 20–14goals 0–1
- Gorges – Diaz2:36
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Murray – Diaz9:13
xG 0.17–0.40 (30%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Johansson14:03
xG 1.02–0.97 (51%)attempts 25–15goals 0–1
- Erat – Laich – Brouwer10:13
xG 0.16–0.14 (54%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Latta – Volpatti – Wilson4:59
xG 0.21–0.20 (51%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Grabovski12:31
xG 0.36–0.41 (47%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Carlson12:47
xG 0.79–0.34 (70%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Green – Urbom13:10
xG 0.69–0.39 (64%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Green – Schmidt3:38
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).