Fri, Nov 22, 2013·Honda Center, Anaheim
Tampa Bay Lightning 0, Anaheim Ducks 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 08 | 010 | 010 | 03 | 031 |
| ANA | 016 | 013 | 011 | 12 | 142 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- OT 4:54ANARyan GetzlafGWGUnassisted · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
Penalties (17)
- P1 1:30ANALuca Sbisa: Interference2 min
- P1 9:41TBLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:41ANATim Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:33ANAAndrew Cogliano: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 14:07TBLRadko Gudas: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:07ANALuca Sbisa: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:13TBLTyler Johnson: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:13ANANick Bonino: Diving2 min
- P2 0:58ANACam Fowler: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:44ANABryan Allen: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 11:36TBLEric Brewer: Interference2 min
- P2 14:39TBLAlex Killorn: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:58ANABryan Allen: Interference2 min
- P2 17:58TBLAlex Killorn: Diving2 min
- P2 19:13ANALuca Sbisa: Interference2 min
- P3 16:52ANAMathieu Perreault: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 17:31TBLValtteri Filppula: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMalone – Killorn – Brown4:00
xG 0.23–0.03 (88%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Filppula – Killorn3:34
xG 0.13–0.10 (55%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Filppula – Purcell5:37
xG 0.18–0.26 (41%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Johnson – Panik – Palat9:41
xG 0.11–0.53 (17%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Gudas5:36
xG 0.21–0.15 (58%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Hedman – Sustr3:46
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Brewer – Sustr4:44
xG 0.15–0.27 (35%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Penner10:03
xG 0.72–0.39 (65%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Perreault – Palmieri7:02
xG 0.39–0.18 (68%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Winnik – Bonino – Etem2:09
xG 0.04–0.06 (40%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Jackman – Winnik – Beleskey2:26
xG 0.02–0.12 (15%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAllen – Lindholm3:11
xG 0.49–0.14 (78%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Fowler11:13
xG 0.51–0.26 (66%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Fistric – Lindholm6:58
xG 0.37–0.33 (54%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).