Sat, Nov 23, 2013·TD Garden, Boston
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Boston Bruins 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 16 | 04 | 114 | 00 | 224 |
| BOS | 114 | 112 | 011 | 11 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:53CARAndrej SekeraPPAssists: Jeff Skinner, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 14:49BOSZdeno CharaPPAssists: Milan Lucic, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.44 xG1–1
- P2 13:31BOSReilly SmithAssists: Carl Soderberg, Matt Bartkowski · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 11:10CARPatrick DwyerSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–2
- OT 1:28BOSDavid KrejciGWGAssists: Jarome Iginla, Johnny Boychuk · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:47BOSCarl Soderberg: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:03CARManny Malhotra: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 4:09CARAndrej Sekera: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:08CARElias Lindholm: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:24CARTuomo Ruutu: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 12:25BOSDougie Hamilton: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestDwyer – Gerbe – Staal9:19
xG 0.66–0.48 (58%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Staal – Tlusty11:19
xG 0.30–0.29 (51%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Skinner – Lindholm8:54
xG 0.13–0.16 (44%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Malhotra – Westgarth – Bowman4:40
xG 0.04–0.15 (22%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Murphy7:11
xG 0.54–0.20 (73%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Gleason – Bellemore8:17
xG 0.30–0.19 (60%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Bellemore8:06
xG 0.23–0.19 (55%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Soderberg – Smith9:49
xG 0.41–0.02 (95%)attempts 14–2goals 1–0
- Eriksson – Bergeron – Marchand11:05
xG 0.34–0.21 (62%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille9:24
xG 0.07–0.15 (32%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Iginla – Krejci – Lucic12:02
xG 0.46–0.64 (42%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Krug11:04
xG 0.48–0.29 (62%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Bartkowski4:15
xG 0.23–0.16 (58%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Chara – Boychuk3:14
xG 0.04–0.05 (48%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).