Sat, Nov 23, 2013·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Minnesota Wild 3, Winnipeg Jets 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 04 | 017 | 213 | 01 | 2 | 335 |
| WPG | 014 | 111 | 110 | 04 | 1 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:07WPGMichael FrolikAssists: Matt Halischuk · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P3 3:21MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Marco Scandella, Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.40 xG1–1
- P3 5:35WPGMatt HalischukAssists: Michael Frolik, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–2
- P3 15:05MINZach PariseSHAssists: Mikko Koivu, Ryan Suter · Snap, 0.15 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. WPG Blake Wheeler stopped
- 2. MIN Zach Parise stopped
- 3. WPG Andrew Ladd stopped
- 4. MIN Mikko Koivu scored
- 5. WPG Bryan Little scored
- 6. MIN Jason Pominville stopped
- 7. WPG Devin Setoguchi stopped
- 8. MIN Charlie Coyle scored
Penalties (4)
- P1 0:24WPGDevin Setoguchi: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:15MINJonas Brodin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 15:43WPGAndrew Ladd: Holding2 min
- P3 14:02MINMarco Scandella: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Parise – Niederreiter6:03
xG 0.90–0.21 (81%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Zucker – Coyle – Fontaine3:55
xG 0.25–0.06 (81%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Pominville – Zucker – Coyle3:38
xG 0.16–0.06 (73%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Koivu – Pominville – Parise10:42
xG 0.45–0.47 (48%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Brodin17:06
xG 0.83–0.75 (53%)attempts 16–20goals 0–0
- Suter – Dumba2:31
xG 0.11–0.09 (55%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Scandella – Spurgeon13:20
xG 0.45–0.46 (50%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Halischuk – Scheifele9:18
xG 1.12–0.15 (88%)attempts 10–10goals 2–0
- Thorburn – Tangradi – Wright5:38
xG 0.08–0.03 (72%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Setoguchi – Kane15:27
xG 0.91–0.89 (51%)attempts 22–17goals 0–1
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little11:58
xG 0.49–0.66 (42%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPardy – Clitsome14:44
xG 1.24–0.58 (68%)attempts 18–12goals 2–0
- Stuart – Ellerby14:20
xG 0.47–0.65 (42%)attempts 12–22goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien16:42
xG 0.74–0.94 (44%)attempts 23–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).