Sat, Nov 23, 2013·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Washington Capitals 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 011 | 017 | 119 | 03 | 1 | 150 |
| TOR | 010 | 19 | 04 | 05 | 2 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:08TORDavid ClarksonPPAssists: Jake Gardiner, Nazem Kadri · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P3 15:50WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Mike Green · Snap, 0.02 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. TOR David Clarkson stopped
- 2. WSH Eric Fehr scored
- 3. TOR James van Riemsdyk scored
- 4. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
- 5. TOR Mason Raymond stopped
- 6. WSH Nicklas Backstrom stopped
- 7. TOR Joffrey Lupul scored
- 8. WSH Troy Brouwer stopped
Penalties (4)
- P2 1:02TORMason Raymond: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:02TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:49WSHEric Fehr: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 0:48TORDavid Clarkson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against McClement
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Ward – Laich12:12
xG 1.33–0.51 (72%)attempts 24–13goals 0–0
- Fehr – Grabovski – Brouwer10:53
xG 0.89–0.42 (68%)attempts 21–6goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson14:19
xG 0.28–0.31 (47%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Latta – Volpatti – Wilson4:05
xG 0.00–0.12 (1%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Carlson15:28
xG 1.17–0.74 (61%)attempts 35–11goals 0–0
- Carlson – Schmidt3:00
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Strachan – Schmidt11:41
xG 0.41–0.41 (50%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Smithson – Orr – McLaren3:24
xG 0.04–0.05 (45%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- McClement – Raymond – Kulemin12:56
xG 0.16–0.21 (43%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Lupul – Clarkson – Kadri16:04
xG 0.45–0.73 (38%)attempts 20–26goals 0–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Holland13:18
xG 1.00–1.53 (39%)attempts 11–25goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Rielly2:00
xG 0.13–0.06 (67%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson15:03
xG 0.36–0.35 (51%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
- Fraser – Rielly14:26
xG 0.41–0.46 (47%)attempts 12–22goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).