Sat, Nov 23, 2013·Centre Bell, Montreal
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 012 | 08 | 211 | 231 |
| MTL | 012 | 111 | 26 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:53MTLMax PaciorettyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P3 1:05MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Andrei Markov, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P3 2:25MTLMax PaciorettyGWGAssists: Raphael Diaz · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–3
- P3 5:44PITJames NealPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Paul Martin · Slap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 17:07PITJames NealAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:59MTLAlexei Emelin: High sticking2 min
- P1 6:10MTLDaniel Brière: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:30PITMatt Niskanen: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:22PITBrandon Sutter: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:21PITBrian Gibbons: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:00MTLBrendan Gallagher: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00PITChris Kunitz: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:30MTLBrian Gionta: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:50PITJames Neal: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Malkin – Neal7:21
xG 0.80–0.16 (83%)attempts 17–8goals 1–1
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby10:49
xG 0.58–0.31 (66%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- D'Agostini – Sutter – Gibbons4:07
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Adams – Glass – Vitale3:12
xG 0.04–0.12 (26%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Maatta9:22
xG 0.44–0.16 (73%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Niskanen – Maatta5:38
xG 0.41–0.23 (64%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Martin – Letang4:53
xG 0.13–0.01 (93%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Gionta – Plekanec7:43
xG 0.79–0.51 (61%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher11:05
xG 0.48–0.38 (56%)attempts 13–8goals 2–0
- Moen – White – Bournival3:46
xG 0.07–0.02 (78%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Gionta – Moen – Plekanec5:12
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban15:34
xG 0.92–0.43 (68%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Subban2:04
xG 0.13–0.04 (78%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Diaz11:17
xG 0.25–0.50 (33%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).