Sat, Nov 23, 2013·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Islanders 2, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 010 | 113 | 115 | 238 |
| PHI | 010 | 312 | 28 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:46PHIMatt ReadAssists: Sean Couturier, Steve Downie · Slap, 0.31 xG0–1
- P2 1:45PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Erik Gustafsson · Snap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 3:48PHIClaude GirouxPPGWGAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Jakub Voracek · Slap, 0.15 xG0–3
- P2 14:04NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Thomas Vanek, Matt Donovan · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 2:39NYIEric BoultonAssists: Casey Cizikas · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 12:21PHIBrayden SchennAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.37 xG2–4
- P3 19:11PHIMatt ReadENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.54 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:00NYIThomas Hickey: Interference2 min
- P2 3:17NYIThomas Vanek: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:48NYIAndrew MacDonald: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 10:22PHIErik Gustafsson: Interference2 min
- P3 13:59PHISteve Mason: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 16:21PHIClaude Giroux: Delaying game face off violation2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Grabner – Nelson7:18
xG 0.45–0.23 (66%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Vanek – Okposo – Tavares17:04
xG 1.27–1.10 (54%)attempts 25–22goals 1–1
- Nielsen – McDonald – Bailey10:50
xG 0.70–0.93 (43%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Boulton – Martin – Cizikas7:01
xG 0.14–0.40 (27%)attempts 2–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Donovan4:51
xG 0.72–0.03 (96%)attempts 14–1goals 1–0
- Martinek – Hamonic2:54
xG 0.45–0.02 (95%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Martinek – Donovan2:59
xG 0.38–0.04 (90%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestDownie – Read – Couturier13:18
xG 0.83–0.54 (61%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – Simmonds – Schenn11:30
xG 0.48–0.53 (47%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Hall – Rosehill – Rinaldo3:31
xG 0.13–0.19 (40%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Hartnell – Giroux – Voracek10:09
xG 0.50–0.66 (43%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Gustafsson12:54
xG 1.16–0.68 (63%)attempts 23–12goals 2–1
- Streit – Grossmann13:37
xG 1.08–0.71 (60%)attempts 15–19goals 1–0
- Timonen – Coburn12:40
xG 0.35–0.46 (43%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).