Sat, Nov 23, 2013·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Dallas Stars 1, St. Louis Blues 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 112 | 010 | 013 | 135 |
| STL | 24 | 112 | 39 | 625 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:39STLVladimir SobotkaAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 10:53DALBrenden DillonAssists: Rich Peverley, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 11:02STLVladimir TarasenkoGWGAssists: Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 6:56STLDavid BackesUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 0:50STLDerek RoyPPAssists: Alexander Steen, Kevin Shattenkirk · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–4
- P3 5:39STLChris StewartAssists: Brenden Morrow, Jay Bouwmeester · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–5
- P3 11:02STLT.J. OshieAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Patrik Berglund · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:11STLRoman Polak: Holding2 min
- P1 11:27STLVladimir Sobotka: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:27DALRich Peverley: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:09STLRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:09DALBrenden Dillon: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:17DALSergei Gonchar: Holding2 min
- P1 19:51DALVernon Fiddler: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P2 8:50STLDavid Backes: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:40DALAntoine Roussel: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 1:54STLChris Stewart: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lapierre won the faceoff against Fiddler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestFiddler – Peverley – Roussel4:46
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Jeffrey – Garbutt3:07
xG 0.16–0.06 (74%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Roussel – Garbutt4:45
xG 0.12–0.06 (66%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Jeffrey – Nichushkin6:09
xG 0.12–0.14 (46%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Dillon12:36
xG 0.34–0.19 (64%)attempts 12–5goals 1–1
- Daley – Goligoski17:04
xG 0.16–0.27 (38%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
- Gonchar – Benn13:15
xG 0.47–0.85 (36%)attempts 16–14goals 0–3
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSobotka – Tarasenko – Schwartz6:57
xG 0.33–0.05 (86%)attempts 5–6goals 2–0
- Morrow – Lapierre – Reaves2:27
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Roy – Stewart – Berglund9:24
xG 0.06–0.15 (28%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Oshie12:21
xG 0.31–0.43 (42%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo15:26
xG 0.60–0.55 (52%)attempts 20–16goals 2–1
- Polak – Cole15:38
xG 0.39–0.36 (52%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk14:17
xG 0.22–0.61 (27%)attempts 5–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).