Sat, Nov 23, 2013·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Anaheim Ducks 4, Phoenix Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 18 | 315 | 04 | 427 |
| PHX | 015 | 115 | 114 | 244 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:11ANADustin PennerPPAssists: Cam Fowler, Nick Bonino · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 7:27PHXMike RibeiroAssists: Derek Morris, Shane Doan · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–1
- P2 8:03ANADustin PennerAssists: Ben Lovejoy · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 11:01ANACorey PerryGWGAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 16:43ANASami VatanenPPAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Matt Beleskey · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–1
- P3 4:20PHXShane DoanAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Radim Vrbata · Tip-in, 0.07 xG4–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:05ANAEmerson Etem: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:24PHXMike Ribeiro: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:35ANATim Jackman: Interference2 min
- P1 13:36ANAAndrew Cogliano: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:49PHXRostislav Klesla: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:02PHXPaul Bissonnette: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 15:02PHXPaul Bissonnette: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:02ANADevante Smith-Pelly: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00ANACorey Perry: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:35PHXMichael Stone: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Perreault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestJackman – Winnik – Beleskey4:18
xG 0.46–0.01 (97%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Penner9:43
xG 0.52–0.23 (70%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
- Bonino – Smith-Pelly – Etem9:23
xG 0.23–0.38 (38%)attempts 6–18goals 0–1
- Cogliano – Perreault – Palmieri7:41
xG 0.32–0.57 (36%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestAllen – Vatanen3:54
xG 0.46–0.03 (94%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Fistric – Vatanen4:46
xG 0.31–0.17 (64%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Lovejoy – Lindholm2:21
xG 0.11–0.07 (63%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Ribeiro – Vrbata12:46
xG 0.86–0.22 (79%)attempts 22–8goals 2–0
- Doan – Ribeiro – Moss2:09
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Vermette – Moss – Boedker2:54
xG 0.03–0.12 (18%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Vermette – Klinkhammer – Boedker6:48
xG 0.24–0.36 (40%)attempts 7–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMorris – Yandle12:21
xG 1.01–0.12 (89%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Rundblad3:11
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Stone – Ekman-Larsson10:00
xG 0.40–0.28 (59%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).