Mon, Nov 25, 2013·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Columbus Blue Jackets 6, Toronto Maple Leafs 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 27 | 28 | 27 | 622 |
| TOR | 05 | 07 | 06 | 018 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:18CBJCam AtkinsonGWGAssists: Matt Calvert, Artem Anisimov · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 10:38CBJR.J. UmbergerAssists: Mark Letestu, Ryan Murray · Snap, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 3:07CBJJack SkilleAssists: Mark Letestu · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–0
- P2 6:25CBJRyan MurrayPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–0
- P3 9:05CBJRyan JohansenAssists: Nick Foligno · Snap, 0.05 xG5–0
- P3 11:24CBJRyan JohansenPPAssists: Nick Foligno, James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.11 xG6–0
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:11CBJNikita Nikitin: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:20TORJake Gardiner: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:28TORMark Fraser: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 9:28CBJDalton Prout: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:28TORMark Fraser: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:50TORDion Phaneuf: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 15:50TORNazem Kadri: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:50CBJMatt Calvert: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:27TORJames van Riemsdyk: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestUmberger – Comeau – Letestu9:06
xG 0.30–0.08 (79%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Foligno – Johansen – Jenner12:17
xG 0.09–0.16 (35%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Calvert – Atkinson10:27
xG 0.19–0.39 (33%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWisniewski – Murray14:56
xG 0.58–0.14 (80%)attempts 14–12goals 3–0
- Prout – Savard7:28
xG 0.41–0.12 (77%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Johnson – Savard2:37
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Kessel – Bozak3:12
xG 0.14–0.05 (74%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- McClement – Raymond – Kulemin4:34
xG 0.08–0.02 (81%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak12:49
xG 0.29–0.28 (51%)attempts 12–10goals 0–2
- Lupul – Clarkson – Kadri6:05
xG 0.11–0.30 (27%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Rielly3:03
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Franson – Gardiner13:01
xG 0.37–0.33 (53%)attempts 19–8goals 0–1
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson11:34
xG 0.08–0.07 (53%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).