Mon, Nov 25, 2013·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Minnesota Wild 0, St. Louis Blues 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 04 | 06 | 012 | 022 |
| STL | 212 | 08 | 11 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:20STLVladimir SobotkaGWGAssists: Carlo Colaiacovo, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.35 xG0–1
- P1 13:38STLAlexander SteenAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, T.J. Oshie · Backhand, 0.35 xG0–2
- P3 18:38STLAlexander SteenENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.49 xG0–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:47MINRyan Suter: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 15:03MINCharlie Coyle: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:46MINJared Spurgeon: Interference2 min
- P2 11:51STLCarlo Colaiacovo: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:51STLJaden Schwartz: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:33STLAlex Pietrangelo: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Koivu – Pominville – Parise2:02
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Cooke – Brodziak – Fontaine2:49
xG 0.12–0.11 (53%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Zucker – Coyle – Fontaine2:08
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Pominville – Zucker – Coyle3:53
xG 0.16–0.22 (41%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Suter – Spurgeon4:03
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Scandella – Brodin4:52
xG 0.08–0.09 (46%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Suter – Scandella2:26
xG 0.03–0.08 (29%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSobotka – Tarasenko – Schwartz8:22
xG 0.50–0.02 (96%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Steen – Backes – Oshie10:53
xG 0.72–0.28 (72%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Morrow – Lapierre – Paajarvi4:38
xG 0.15–0.01 (91%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Roy – Stewart – Berglund8:29
xG 0.43–0.42 (51%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Colaiacovo11:48
xG 0.94–0.26 (78%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Polak – Cole13:21
xG 0.60–0.20 (75%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo16:25
xG 0.55–0.55 (50%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).