Tue, Nov 26, 2013·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Anaheim Ducks 3, Dallas Stars 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 114 | 19 | 18 | 331 |
| DAL | 09 | 110 | 514 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:06ANAEmerson EtemAssists: Daniel Winnik, Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–0
- P2 13:13DALAntoine RousselAssists: Vernon Fiddler, Ryan Garbutt · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–1
- P2 19:24ANANick BoninoAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 5:25DALCody EakinAssists: Erik Cole, Jordie Benn · Snap, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 5:50DALStephane RobidasAssists: Rich Peverley, Ray Whitney · Snap, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 6:18DALRyan GarbuttGWGAssists: Trevor Daley · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 12:08DALAntoine RousselAssists: Ryan Garbutt, Vernon Fiddler · Deflected, 0.29 xG2–5
- P3 13:25ANADustin PennerPPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–5
- P3 19:01DALAlex ChiassonENAssists: Erik Cole, Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.64 xG3–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:29ANAMathieu Perreault: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:59DALAntoine Roussel: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:04ANAHampus Lindholm: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:01ANAMathieu Perreault: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:05DALBrenden Dillon: Delaying game2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Bonino
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestWinnik – Maroon – Etem8:08
xG 0.71–0.30 (70%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
- Selanne – Beleskey – Perreault10:20
xG 0.44–0.19 (70%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Bonino – Palmieri11:14
xG 0.60–0.36 (62%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
- Getzlaf – Perry – Penner11:46
xG 0.23–0.41 (36%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestYonkman – Lindholm15:09
xG 1.10–0.85 (56%)attempts 15–17goals 2–2
- Lovejoy – Fowler18:32
xG 0.69–0.60 (53%)attempts 19–20goals 0–1
- Fistric – Vatanen11:07
xG 0.28–0.23 (55%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestFiddler – Roussel – Garbutt11:26
xG 1.00–0.71 (59%)attempts 12–11goals 3–1
- Peverley – Benn – Seguin4:00
xG 0.17–0.03 (84%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Whitney – Horcoff – Nichushkin4:14
xG 0.14–0.02 (88%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Whitney – Chiasson – Eakin3:11
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Benn14:42
xG 0.69–0.63 (52%)attempts 10–14goals 2–1
- Daley – Goligoski14:33
xG 0.45–0.51 (47%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Robidas – Dillon15:40
xG 0.47–0.67 (41%)attempts 18–20goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).