Wed, Nov 27, 2013·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Montréal Canadiens 3, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 19 | 17 | 115 | 331 |
| BUF | 05 | 19 | 011 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:21MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Andrei Markov, Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 13:44MTLDavid DesharnaisPPGWGAssists: P.K. Subban, Andrei Markov · Tip-in, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 17:30BUFMatt MoulsonAssists: Drew Stafford · Slap, 0.21 xG2–1
- P3 18:16MTLBrendan GallagherPPAssists: David Desharnais, Andrei Markov · Slap, 0.12 xG3–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:54MTLAlex Galchenyuk: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 19:16BUFMatt Moulson: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:25BUFMarcus Foligno: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:34BUFJohn Scott: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:34MTLDouglas Murray: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:17BUFTyler Myers: Boarding2 min
- P3 17:02BUFTyler Ennis: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hodgson won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestBrière – White – Bournival2:03
xG 0.66–0.32 (67%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Brière – Gionta – Plekanec7:58
xG 0.27–0.09 (75%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Moen – White – Bournival5:52
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Prust – Eller – Galchenyuk10:29
xG 0.17–0.28 (38%)attempts 4–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban13:39
xG 0.96–0.12 (89%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Markov – Emelin2:35
xG 0.14–0.02 (89%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Markov – Diaz2:31
xG 0.10–0.01 (90%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Stafford – Hodgson10:17
xG 0.46–0.22 (67%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Adam – Girgensons – Grigorenko10:39
xG 0.42–0.28 (60%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Scott – Foligno – Flynn5:19
xG 0.16–0.08 (66%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Ott – Leino – Ennis15:06
xG 0.57–0.87 (39%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Sulzer17:13
xG 0.56–0.32 (63%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Tallinder – Myers15:08
xG 0.45–0.43 (51%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- McNabb – Pysyk12:36
xG 0.59–1.05 (36%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).