Wed, Nov 27, 2013·Prudential Center, Newark
Carolina Hurricanes 4, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 112 | 37 | 03 | 422 |
| NJD | 06 | 17 | 29 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:44CARJustin FaulkAssists: Jiri Tlusty, Manny Malhotra · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 1:50CARTuomo RuutuAssists: Eric Staal, Andrej Sekera · Snap, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 4:21NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Dainius Zubrus, Andy Greene · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 8:16CARRon HainseyAssists: Radek Dvorak, Andrej Sekera · Slap, 0.02 xG3–1
- P2 15:43CARPatrick DwyerSHGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG4–1
- P3 8:30NJDAndy GreeneAssists: Patrik Elias · Slap, 0.02 xG4–2
- P3 18:13NJDJaromir JagrAssists: Eric Gelinas, Patrik Elias · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–3
Penalties (2)
- P2 14:58CARRon Hainsey: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:24NJDMarek Zidlicky: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Elias
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Staal – Gerbe10:49
xG 0.55–0.23 (70%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Staal – Skinner – Lindholm2:04
xG 0.06–0.06 (49%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Malhotra – Bowman9:42
xG 0.34–0.44 (43%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Dwyer – Tlusty – Staal11:56
xG 0.16–0.46 (26%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Bellemore16:43
xG 0.50–0.41 (55%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Sekera – Faulk17:15
xG 0.56–0.53 (51%)attempts 11–15goals 2–1
- Harrison – Murphy14:21
xG 0.28–0.89 (24%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestRyder – Carter – Loktionov10:13
xG 0.70–0.12 (85%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Jagr – Zubrus – Zajac14:29
xG 0.80–0.51 (61%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
- Janssen – Tedenby – Josefson5:21
xG 0.05–0.08 (36%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Elias – Bernier – Henrique11:49
xG 0.35–0.39 (47%)attempts 9–7goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestFayne – Greene16:35
xG 0.68–0.29 (71%)attempts 15–8goals 2–1
- Harrold – Merrill16:39
xG 0.91–0.52 (64%)attempts 10–10goals 0–2
- Zidlicky – Gelinas17:38
xG 0.41–0.63 (40%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).