Wed, Nov 27, 2013·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Winnipeg Jets 3, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 011 | 311 | 07 | 329 |
| NYI | 013 | 17 | 110 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:27WPGMark StuartAssists: James Wright · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 14:39WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Blake Wheeler, Bryan Little · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 16:42WPGDevin SetoguchiGWGAssists: Keaton Ellerby, Mark Scheifele · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–0
- P2 17:49NYIAndrew MacDonaldPPAssists: Thomas Vanek, John Tavares · Slap, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 14:01NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Matt Carkner, Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:39WPGOlli Jokinen: Interference2 min
- P1 16:16WPGMichael Frolik: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:07WPGOlli Jokinen: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 6:37NYIThomas Vanek: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:54WPGJacob Trouba: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:44NYIPierre-Marc Bouchard: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little12:56
xG 0.75–0.25 (75%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Frolik – Halischuk – Scheifele11:11
xG 0.48–0.52 (48%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Setoguchi – Kane12:34
xG 0.26–0.32 (45%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Tangradi – Wright6:56
xG 0.10–0.33 (24%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Ellerby12:35
xG 0.90–0.46 (66%)attempts 15–17goals 3–0
- Clitsome – Trouba14:35
xG 0.35–0.38 (48%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien16:42
xG 0.41–0.52 (44%)attempts 18–17goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBouchard – Regin – Clutterbuck6:23
xG 0.39–0.14 (73%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Bouchard – Nelson3:04
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Martin – Cizikas – Nelson6:48
xG 0.15–0.09 (63%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Grabner – Bailey – Cizikas2:27
xG 0.09–0.05 (62%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarkner – Ness11:13
xG 0.85–0.24 (78%)attempts 18–9goals 0–1
- MacDonald – Hamonic20:48
xG 0.31–0.68 (31%)attempts 16–21goals 1–0
- Hickey – Donovan11:56
xG 0.29–0.68 (30%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).