Wed, Nov 27, 2013·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 6 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 210 | 314 | 00 | 00 | 0 | 524 |
| PIT | 117 | 212 | 217 | 02 | 2 | 648 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:57PITChris ConnerAssists: Andrew Ebbett, Brandon Sutter · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–1
- P1 5:09TORJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Cody Franson · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 11:41TORNazem KadriAssists: Mark Fraser · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 0:13TORJames van RiemsdykUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–1
- P2 0:42TORPhil KesselAssists: Tyler Bozak · Snap, 0.19 xG4–1
- P2 8:27PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.07 xG4–2
- P2 15:20PITKris LetangPPAssists: James Neal, Chris Kunitz · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–3
- P2 19:55TORTyler BozakAssists: James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–3
- P3 3:46PITJames NealPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.15 xG5–4
- P3 7:41PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Sidney Crosby, Chris Kunitz · Wrist, 0.20 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. PIT Jussi Jokinen stopped
- 2. TOR Tyler Bozak stopped
- 3. PIT Sidney Crosby scored
- 4. TOR David Clarkson stopped
- 5. PIT Evgeni Malkin scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:01PITSimon Despres: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 1:31PITJames Neal: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:52TORNazem Kadri: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 8:17TORCarl Gunnarsson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 10:42TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:42PITSidney Crosby: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:45TORPeter Holland: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 2:12TORJerred Smithson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 3:18TORJames van Riemsdyk: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:07PITEvgeni Malkin: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak15:21
xG 0.96–0.81 (54%)attempts 13–20goals 3–0
- Smithson – McClement – Kulemin6:22
xG 0.02–0.02 (55%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- McClement – Kulemin – Holland2:36
xG 0.34–0.57 (38%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Clarkson – Raymond – Kadri12:29
xG 0.23–0.67 (26%)attempts 12–21goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson14:43
xG 0.63–0.72 (46%)attempts 10–21goals 2–0
- Ranger – Rielly15:02
xG 0.54–0.79 (41%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- Franson – Fraser13:35
xG 0.39–0.77 (33%)attempts 10–23goals 2–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestConner – Ebbett – Sutter7:04
xG 0.52–0.02 (96%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby12:29
xG 0.84–0.43 (66%)attempts 22–9goals 0–2
- Jokinen – Malkin – Neal11:22
xG 0.83–0.51 (62%)attempts 20–12goals 0–1
- Adams – Vitale – Megna3:45
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Maatta5:28
xG 0.58–0.03 (94%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Despres13:50
xG 0.61–0.07 (89%)attempts 16–3goals 1–0
- Orpik – Engelland10:54
xG 0.47–0.09 (84%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).