Wed, Nov 27, 2013·Pepsi Center, Denver
St. Louis Blues 4, Colorado Avalanche 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 313 | 013 | 19 | 435 |
| COL | 111 | 06 | 09 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:46STLDavid BackesAssists: T.J. Oshie, Jay Bouwmeester · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 6:10STLAlexander SteenPPGWGAssists: David Backes, Derek Roy · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–0
- P1 8:24COLPatrick BordeleauAssists: Jan Hejda, Brad Malone · Backhand, 0.30 xG2–1
- P1 18:12STLJaden SchwartzSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 18:16STLChris StewartENAssists: Derek Roy, Patrik Berglund · Wrist, 0.65 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:34COLJan Hejda: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 10:28STLJay Bouwmeester: Holding2 min
- P1 17:21STLIan Cole: Holding2 min
- P2 10:21STLJay Bouwmeester: Interference2 min
- P2 12:49STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:49COLTyson Barrie: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:54STLJaden Schwartz: Concealing puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Mitchell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Backes – Oshie10:38
xG 0.46–0.10 (82%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Sobotka – Tarasenko – Schwartz11:52
xG 0.45–0.16 (73%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Roy – Stewart – Berglund7:22
xG 0.39–0.27 (59%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Morrow – Lapierre – Paajarvi7:20
xG 0.35–0.44 (44%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Shattenkirk13:50
xG 0.80–0.51 (61%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo15:18
xG 0.46–0.31 (60%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Polak – Cole13:21
xG 0.41–0.49 (46%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – O'Reilly – Duchene4:48
xG 0.16–0.07 (70%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Talbot – Mitchell – McLeod9:10
xG 0.21–0.13 (62%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Bordeleau – Cliche – Malone4:18
xG 0.06–0.17 (24%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Talbot – Mitchell – Bordeleau3:27
xG 0.02–0.16 (12%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSarich – Benoit8:33
xG 0.56–0.23 (71%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Sarich – Guenin4:24
xG 0.05–0.02 (71%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Benoit – Barrie2:17
xG 0.01–0.14 (7%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).