Thu, Nov 28, 2013·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Vancouver Canucks 5, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 07 | 410 | 111 | 528 |
| OTT | 111 | 114 | 014 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:50OTTClarke MacArthurAssists: Marc Methot, Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 0:31VANDaniel SedinAssists: Henrik Sedin, Chris Tanev · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 1:16VANDavid BoothAssists: Mike Santorelli · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 4:06VANJason GarrisonPPGWGAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Snap, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 9:22VANDale WeiseAssists: Jason Garrison, David Booth · Wrist, 0.31 xG4–1
- P2 18:58OTTMika ZibanejadAssists: Joe Corvo, Jason Spezza · Backhand, 0.19 xG4–2
- P3 5:31VANMike SantorelliUnassisted · Wrist, 0.23 xG5–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:29OTTMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:29VANDale Weise: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:32VANBrad Richardson: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:54OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 14:56OTTChris Neil: Charging2 min
- P2 14:56VANTom Sestito: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:56OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:45VANRyan Kesler: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:22OTTMika Zibanejad: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:58VANDan Hamhuis: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:59VANAlexandre Burrows: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:59OTTCory Conacher: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBooth – Santorelli – Weise4:44
xG 0.48–0.31 (61%)attempts 6–9goals 2–0
- Higgins – Kesler – Kassian6:48
xG 0.08–0.02 (81%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows11:12
xG 0.45–0.41 (52%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Kesler – Booth – Hansen2:27
xG 0.07–0.06 (53%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bieksa – Stanton5:44
xG 0.11–0.13 (47%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Edler – Garrison6:11
xG 0.12–0.18 (40%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Garrison – Stanton6:57
xG 0.34–0.41 (45%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Ryan – Turris12:06
xG 0.88–0.26 (77%)attempts 17–8goals 1–1
- Greening – Condra – Grant2:37
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Zibanejad12:07
xG 0.63–0.55 (53%)attempts 20–9goals 1–2
- Neil – Greening – Smith7:15
xG 0.02–0.06 (23%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Corvo14:31
xG 0.95–0.22 (81%)attempts 20–15goals 1–0
- Gryba – Borowiecki10:47
xG 0.66–0.34 (66%)attempts 15–3goals 0–1
- Methot – Karlsson18:20
xG 0.89–0.81 (52%)attempts 19–14goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).