Fri, Nov 29, 2013·TD Garden, Boston
New York Rangers 2, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 28 | 07 | 04 | 219 |
| BOS | 19 | 09 | 210 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:42BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Zdeno Chara, Loui Eriksson · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 13:04NYRRick NashAssists: Brad Richards, Carl Hagelin · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 14:26NYRRyan McDonaghAssists: Derick Brassard, Ryan Callahan · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 1:35BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Brad Marchand, Johnny Boychuk · Snap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 11:05BOSZdeno CharaGWGAssists: David Krejci · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:52BOSLoui Eriksson: Hooking2 min
- P1 1:03NYRChris Kreider: High sticking2 min
- P1 6:06NYRRick Nash: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:06BOSTorey Krug: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:06BOSAdam McQuaid: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:16BOSZdeno Chara: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:40NYRDerick Brassard: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:14BOSBrad Marchand: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:57BOSZdeno Chara: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:57NYRBrian Boyle: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:57NYRAnton Stralman: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:57BOSDavid Krejci: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:26BOSMilan Lucic: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krejci won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestCallahan – Pouliot – Brassard8:36
xG 0.44–0.07 (87%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Zuccarello9:46
xG 0.13–0.13 (49%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Richards – Nash – Hagelin10:31
xG 0.23–0.48 (32%)attempts 8–17goals 1–2
- Pyatt – Moore – Boyle8:56
xG 0.06–0.46 (11%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Staal – Falk2:07
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Staal – Stralman11:18
xG 0.52–0.49 (52%)attempts 8–13goals 1–2
- Falk – Moore8:41
xG 0.08–0.17 (31%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Krejci – Lucic13:56
xG 0.66–0.20 (76%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille7:25
xG 0.11–0.09 (56%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Bergeron – Marchand8:45
xG 0.30–0.29 (51%)attempts 11–4goals 2–0
- Kelly – Soderberg – Smith10:37
xG 0.19–0.18 (52%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Boychuk9:46
xG 0.50–0.21 (70%)attempts 16–6goals 3–1
- Seidenberg – Hamilton11:03
xG 0.28–0.11 (72%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Seidenberg – Boychuk3:54
xG 0.10–0.06 (65%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).