Fri, Nov 29, 2013·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 15 | 011 | 213 | 329 |
| TBL | 07 | 08 | 06 | 021 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:53PITChris KunitzGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P3 8:27PITBrandon SutterPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–0
- P3 18:17PITChris KunitzENAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.62 xG3–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:11PITEvgeni Malkin: Illegal equipment2 min
- P1 14:05TBLDana Tyrell: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:11PITEvgeni Malkin: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:04TBLAlex Killorn: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:37PITJames Neal: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:37TBLMark Barberio: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 0:00PITCraig Adams: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestAdams – Vitale – Megna6:03
xG 0.18–0.01 (94%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby10:53
xG 0.32–0.16 (67%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Conner – Ebbett – Sutter8:20
xG 0.21–0.16 (57%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Adams – Malkin – Neal2:11
xG 0.09–0.09 (48%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Despres15:00
xG 0.47–0.36 (57%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Letang – Maatta12:24
xG 0.34–0.30 (53%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Orpik – Engelland12:43
xG 0.37–0.48 (43%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Filppula – Brown9:44
xG 0.63–0.14 (81%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Purcell – Killorn – Kucherov9:14
xG 0.33–0.23 (59%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Filppula – Purcell2:24
xG 0.09–0.14 (40%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Johnson – Panik – Palat13:33
xG 0.18–0.31 (37%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Barberio10:54
xG 0.29–0.19 (60%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Barberio – Hedman2:02
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Salo – Hedman10:12
xG 0.18–0.13 (59%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).