Fri, Nov 29, 2013·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Detroit Red Wings 5, New York Islanders 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 19 | 19 | 312 | 530 |
| NYI | 012 | 07 | 010 | 029 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:09DETDarren HelmGWGAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Brendan Smith · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 16:49DETDarren HelmSHAssists: Daniel Cleary, Jonathan Ericsson · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P3 0:12DETDaniel AlfredssonAssists: Brendan Smith · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–0
- P3 6:12DETGustav NyquistAssists: Johan Franzen, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–0
- P3 16:13DETDaniel AlfredssonAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.36 xG5–0
Penalties (3)
- P2 2:57NYIRadek Martinek: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:06NYICasey Cizikas: Interference2 min
- P2 16:03DETJustin Abdelkader: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Helm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Andersson – Tatar9:21
xG 0.65–0.27 (71%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Abdelkader – Helm12:52
xG 1.04–0.73 (59%)attempts 14–11goals 3–0
- Zetterberg – Franzen – Nyquist14:56
xG 0.73–1.03 (42%)attempts 16–20goals 1–0
- Cleary – Samuelsson – Weiss9:16
xG 0.16–0.59 (22%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson13:58
xG 1.43–0.81 (64%)attempts 21–14goals 2–0
- Quincey – Smith17:22
xG 0.44–0.68 (39%)attempts 13–19goals 1–0
- Kindl – Lashoff14:20
xG 0.48–0.78 (38%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBouchard – Regin – Nelson6:21
xG 0.70–0.27 (72%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Grabner8:59
xG 0.52–0.26 (66%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Vanek – Clutterbuck – Tavares7:36
xG 0.60–0.37 (62%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Regin – Clutterbuck – Grabner2:59
xG 0.18–0.15 (55%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hamonic17:34
xG 1.21–1.09 (53%)attempts 26–19goals 0–1
- Carkner – Ness11:47
xG 0.78–0.67 (54%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
- Martinek – Hickey14:14
xG 0.65–0.54 (55%)attempts 13–5goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).